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SMCI Plunges 33%: Smart Buy or a High-Risk Bet?

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Key Takeaways

  • SMCI shares fell 33% post $2.5B AI server smuggling allegations tied to export violations.
  • Super Micro faces renewed scrutiny amid past accounting issues, DOJ probe and auditor resignation.
  • SMCI still sees strong AI demand, projecting $12.3B Q3 revenues and at least $0.60 EPS.

Super Micro Computer, Inc.’s (SMCI - Free Report) shares plummeted 33.3% on Friday following fresh allegations, adding to its past controversies. But does this sharp decline create a buying opportunity given its strong artificial intelligence (AI)-driven outlook, or is it better for investors to stay away? Let’s take a closer look –  

SMCI Falls on $2.5B Smuggling Allegations 

Supermicro’s shares tumbled on Friday after three individuals linked to the company were accused of illegally shipping AI-centric servers equipped with NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA - Free Report) graphic processing units (GPUs) to China, violating U.S. export restrictions. 

U.S. prosecutors have charged co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, manager Ruei-Tsan “Steven” Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun under the Export Control Reform Act, alleging that they smuggled roughly $2.5 billion worth of NVIDIA-powered servers. Adding to concerns, Liaw had stepped down from Supermicro amid an accounting scandal, later rejoining the company as a consultant and then becoming a member of the board of directors. 

Supermicro placed Liaw and Chang on administrative leave and terminated Sun’s contract, but it was too late and too little, as it had no meaningful impact on the company’s share price. Rehiring a former employee previously linked to allegations, only to face fresh controversy, rightfully dented investor confidence.  

Previous SMCI Scandals Add to Investor Unease 

It isn’t the first time that Supermicro has faced a controversy. Earlier, a short-seller alleged accounting irregularities at Supermicro, which delayed its annual 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

In another instance, the U.S. Department of Justice also investigated Supermicro over accounting discrepancies and received a letter of noncompliance from the Nasdaq exchange, raising concerns about being delisted. Although the company filed its delayed reports, its auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned, citing weaknesses in internal financial controls. Recurring controversies have continued to ruin the company’s reputation. 

SMCI Stock: How Should Investors Trade It Now? 

With Supermicro’s shares under pressure amid smuggling allegations and a history of accounting controversies, it’s prudent for new investors to stay on the sidelines until management rebuilds confidence.  

Stakeholders may consider holding the stock, since, despite controversies, the company remains well-positioned to make the most of the next wave of AI demand by expanding its server capacity. Supermicro’s Data Center Building Block Solutions (“DCBBS”) continues to see strong consumer demand, driven by its integrated server, networking, and storage capabilities. 

Banking on DCBBS’s popularity, Supermicro expects steady revenue growth of at least $12.3 billion in fiscal third-quarter 2026, following strong revenue growth of $12.7 billion in fiscal second-quarter 2026, per ir.supermicro.com. The company also expects non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of at least $0.60 in fiscal third-quarter 2026, following a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.69 in fiscal second-quarter 2026, signaling sustained performance despite a modest sequential pullback. 

Supermicro, therefore, currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.
 


 

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